The propaganda war is heavy. Both sides are trying to push the Overton window of the negotiations and public opinion, but the position gap between the US and Iran is an unbridgeable canyon. Iran wants the U.S. naval blockade lifted upfront just to talk. Trump, operating on an aggressive “America First” axis, has responded by expanding the field into a regional tour de force. By mandatorily requiring third-party mediators like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar to sign the Abraham Accords as a prerequisite, he has introduced a diplomatic slow-roll that lets him leverage the situation and the World Cup to make deals that may restructure the Middle East long term.
With the U.S. co-hosting the World Cup starting June 11th, Trump has no intention of letting protests mar a glittering showcase of American greatness. After all, the US already won. Victory!
Instead, June will be a highly coordinated celebration of world peace and diplomacy. Trump has successfully boxed the Iranian regime into a strategic stalemate. If Tehran lashes out kinetically, they alienate their own friendly mediators; if they sit tight, they continue to starve under a port blockade costing them $500 million a day.
Iran has no good operational moves left. Trump will use the global sporting stage to showcase historic Abraham Accords progress, project the image of a master peacemaker, and declare a massive public relations victory. Meanwhile, the actual economic handcuffs remain locked tightly in place. The diplomatic posturing will drag on through the summer, but the leverage belongs entirely to Washington. And Trump loves leverage.