Following up on my Iran exit strategy post.

This extra 10 days is all too convenient. Many things are all too convenient, specifically the oops, missed interceptions. Look at who has been hit, and cui bono.

LNG in Qatar -> US new LNG king
Petrochemical plants -> US chemical i.e. DOW LYB
Aluminum plants -> US aluminum producers i.e. AA CENX
E-3 destroyed -> MIC sells upgrades (E-7) BA
Al-Salmi tanker -> US insurance especially Chubb CB

Call me crazy, but every single missile that fails to get intercepted seems to cause a big shift in favor of a US industry.

The whole war seems to be a giant sales opportunity for the MIC to liquidate old munitions and sell their next gen stuff. There's a lot of talk about expenditure of munitions and planes being blown up, especially the recent E-3 hit. Consider that high resolution, on the ground photos were released immediately after the E-3 was destroyed. Not just satelite photos but on the ground photos from inside a military base, in the middle of a war. Where is the infosec? Infosec has been tight all around this conflict, yet these photos leaked. Boeing has been trying to convince Congress to upgrade to the new E-7 for many years. This is just one example. Consider that during this 10 day window, the administration is trying to push through a $200 billion Defense spending bill H.R. 7567. And if you look at the details, many new contracts (i.e. anti-drone tech) are being locked in through this conflict. Then you simply have the replacement contracts for things like cruise missiles. The 10 days is pure leverage against Congress to pass new Defense spending and approve new toys like the E-7.

LNG is another highly suspect area. During this 10 day window the EU Parliament was pressured, voted on, and approved the Turnberry trade agreement, which locks in $750 billion worth of US LNG purchases. 10 days after Qatar was forced to declare force majeure on their contracts due to a 17% reduction in their production capacity. Talk about a gun to the head. These 10 days were critical political pressure to close the deal.

One of the major economic factors right now is insurance. Lloyds of London controls ~90% of the relevant ship insurance market. Insurance premiums on the thousands of ships affected have gone up 10x. Meanwhile, the US created a government backed insurance program in partnership with Chubb. Socialized losses and private gains. US military escorts for ships. Furthermore, the strike on the Kuwaiti tanker Al-Salmi, at anchorage in Dubai, forces hundreds of ships to sign new premiums with Lloyds or switch within 7 days. Chubb is up 2% on the news.

In general, it seems to me like Trump & co are using these 10 days and this war as one big deal making blitz. They are reshaping industries in favor of the US. They are reshaping gulf politics in favor of the US and the petrodollar. All of this will be of great political benefit to Trump going into the midterms, and great economic benefit to the US as it rolls over a massive wave of debt later this year. Everyone will be buying dollars. Everyone is already buying dollars, but it's going to get much more pronounced.

Trump is toying with Iran. He's toying with Europe, the Saudis and other gulf countries. He's slapping China around on multiple fronts, strengthening his position going into trade negotiations next month. He is playing the media and markets like a fiddle to the benefit of US economic interests.

And the military exit strategy? They've had complete dominance of Hormuz for weeks. They've logged *thousands* of miles of drone boat patrols, with drones capable of scanning the sea floor in wide swaths and high resolution. They've been using A-10 warthogs to liquidate any remaining surface boats especially the "fast attack" boats, mine layers and drones that make up what little remains of the Iranian naval capacity. These are the only remaining naval threats to passage of Hormuz. We don't know what's going on under the surface, but we do know that drone subs capable of mine removal are deployed, along with other submarine assets. And we know that the surface and air above the water is secured. Meanwhile, of course, the coast line and remaining radar, eyes and launch facilities are being liquidated.

Internally, inside Iran there is a very interesting selective pressure being applied. Iran has two official militaries. The IRGC is the hardline theocratic military. Artesh is the secular military. The US has specifically been targetting the IRGC and sparing Artesh. The tensions between the IRGC and Artesh are showing, for instance the IRGC refusing to transport wounded Artesh soldiers, and only issuing Artesh soldiers 10 rounds of amunition. Economically, the Iranian rial is in free fall and everything is in short supply, including food. There are reports of even IRGC not receiving sufficient food rations, in favor of missile logistics. Imagine what the situation is like for the Artesh soldiers, who are deserting in record numbers. Meanwhile, the Kurds and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) are seizing control of regions of the country, closing the roads to Pakistan, for instance. The IRGC and the Ayatollahs are struggling to maintain control domestically, and all of the opposition is being spared and even supported.

So what is the end game? Well, option 1 is a diplomatic deal where Iran capitulates. Option 2 is the April 6 electrical grid strikes. What would that actually look like? The military relies on electricity for communication and various aspects of missile and drone launch logistics. You can't launch missiles without electricity. Even if you could, you wouldn't be able to coordinate. Even if you could, you wouldn't have accurate target coordinates. And missiles are all that Iran has left. Meanwhile, right before the strike the US would send out the "Rise Up" message that they've told the Iranians to wait for. So the people and resistance groups would rise up, while the regime is hobbled and confused. The US already has complete air dominance over Iran, so they would provide air support for the Artesh, Kurds, BLA, etc. IRGC would be toast and a new government would be installed with Artesh backing.

It's a game. Iran is being toyed with. All of their "successes" are carefully facilitated to achieve a strategic goal for a US special interest group. The theocratic regime is rapidly crumbling from within. The knockout blow is ready, but the extra 10 days are needed to close trillions of dollars worth of deals from Wall St to Congress to EU Parliament to the GCC.

Part 1: Iran Exit Strategy