Say what you want about war or politics, but I think Trump is a genius. I also think I have his Iran exit plan figured out.
He panicked the Iranians (but not markets) by issuing the 48h ultimatum over the weekend. He got the Iranians to make terrorist threats against their neighbors (attack water desalination plants), thereby solidifying international support. Iran is suffering hyperinflation (they just issued a new 10 million rial note over the weekend, and suffered a run on the banks because people are desperate for cash (before the electrical grid crashes, or the financial situation gets worse).
Then Trump called it off before markets in the US opened, preventing a crash. Were there talks with Iran? who cares. He gave the market a big sigh of relief, while Iran is still under increasing pressure. He also implied that he was talking with an unknown person, so now all the Iranian leadership are looking at each other wondering who is the traitor. And if the traitor is in their midst already, it is better to join them in betraying Iran and get in on the new administration, Venezuela style. Meanwhile, since the delay is only 5 days, the people are still panicking and continuing the bank run.
Here’s the badass part. The USS Tripoli was en route and expected to arrive today, based on their last confirmed sighting by Sri Lanka on the 19th. But today the WaPo published an article quoting undisclosed military sources saying the arrival would be “Friday.” Friday, the day of the deadline, and a ridiculously slow arrival date. Unbelievably slow. At the same time, Trump sends the 82nd airborne to the theater, which would be the paratroopers needed to take Kharg island, which is where 90% of iran’s oil exports go through. All week, he and the military have been threatening Kharg. The Iranians have no choice but to take the threat seriously. They must divert resources to defending Kharg. The thing is Kharg is way inside the gulf, and you have to pass through the straight first. So if the Tripoli is already there today, why say they won’t arrive until Friday? Why this delay? The Tripoli has advanced mine sweeping capabilities. They are going to use the extra 5 days to clear a transit lane through the Omani side of the straight, while they continue to hammer the coastal military facilities on the Iranian side.
To clarify, Trump doesn’t even want Kharg. It is a headache that would only raise gas prices. It is a feint.
Then, on Friday, he can declare that the straight is open, and the US will begin escorting ships through, crashing oil prices back through the floor. The SPR dump is already signed, so it’ll be releasing for weeks and weeks. Other things were done (i.e. lifting sanctions on Iranian oil at sea, tax rebates, etc) that will continue to depress oil prices even after the straight is open. Prices are going to crash.
Then Trump will be heading into the midterms with two massive military victories, and super low gas prices.
The biggest loser in all of this is China. China’s belt and road initiative was basically kicked out of the Americas by the Venezuela coup and subsequent actions like the Cuban blockade. Now China’s main anchor for BRI in Eurasia is also knocked out. More importantly, Trump showed in multiple theaters and multiple ways how US military tech is superior to Chinese / Russian. So all of the middle eastern countries, for example, will be spending their Defense budgets on the US MIC, and they’ll be coordinating security with the US from now on. The Saudi - Iranian rapprochement is dead, for example. China also is the one country that has easily suffered the most economically from all of this, and will continue to. China was the main buyer of Qatar’s LNG, which was the only major energy hit in the war so far. Since that hit will reduce Qatari LNG for 3-5 years, the US is now the world’s largest LNG producer.
Coincidentally, Trump negotiated a $750 b deal with the EU for them to purchase US LNG. Everyone said it was such a large commitment it wasn’t even possible for them to buy that much. Well they’re buying it now.
And the cherry on top, Cuba is ready to fall whenever he turns his attention there and wants another quick win.
The man is a fucking genius.
Part 2: Cui Bono?